The ODI series lost 4 zuk, and everyone expects the Tests to be a lot worse. What can India do from here? Is it time to play Lele and say 3-0? I hope not, and I don't think so. India have some things going for them, and if I can wear Chappell's hat for now, here's what could and should happen:
a) India have struggled on this tour because of the batting blow outs. For us to do well in the Tests, the no-longer-the-most-powerful-batting-lineup-on-paper should fire. Realistically, only Dravid and Tendulkar have the goods to consistently deliver. But you cannot rule out Laxman and Sehwag coming good in one-off innings. Remember what happened in Aus in 2003-04 (the series Kumble wants India to replicate here) - Dravid and Laxman got runs, Sehwag scored in 1 match and Tendulkar scored in 1 - and we drew the series that we could have won if Bhajji was around in Sydney. In short, what we need is for Dravid and Tendulkar to score 350 runs each in the series, and for Laxman and Sehwag to score atleast 300 runs put together. If this happens, India can provide their bowlers with a target, and set up matches for draws and wins. Don't expect Ganguly/Jaffer/Dhoni to bail you out - these 4 guys need to score. If they don't, we will be mauled.
b) Can Jaffer and Sehwag do what Akash Chopra and Sehwag did in Aus '03-'04? If these two guys can together play out just 1 session every match (yes, just 30 overs combined will do for now), that will go a long way in helping India draw. If they take the shine off the new ball, India's middle order gets that platform to take on the Nels and Steyns of the world. It is bloody critical!
c) The bowling is looking just about ok. Sure, they are inexperienced, but what to do - we are like this only. I would, for the first Test, pick Pathan, Sreesanth, Kumble and Zaheer. Hard on VRV, but we need batting depth please, and there is no guarantee VRV will be the same bowler in the Tests that he was 1 week ago in the practice game. Can these 4 guys pick 20 wickets? Maybe, maybe not - but there are in with a chance. If India get the runs on the board, Kumble can come into play on a hot day, and Zak and Sreesanth can be useful with the new ball. Of course we are risking Pathan as 4th bowler, so that means Ganguly, Tendulkar and Sehwag have to bowl 20 overs for no more than 70 runs. Tough ask, but no choice, really. Once the batting settles, we can then drop Pathan for VRV (a better wicket taking option), or even go for Bhajji.
d) Catch anything that comes your way, please! The one thing Chappell can control directly - please ensure that this is pukka. If it is not, we are finished. Dropping Kallis on 10 can be dreadful.
e) Their batting is weak - except for the last game we had them struggling in every ODI. Smith is struggling against Zaheer, the middle order is not in great form, and only the lower order (Boucher/Kemp/Pollock) are scoring. Hopefully Kumble can account for them. Make early inroads, and we can put pressure on their batting.
f) We need some bloody luck. No shoulder before wicket decisions against Tendulkar please, and please let it rain now and then, especially if we are struggling. If there is no rain, let it be so bloody hot that any moisture and grass disappears quickly, so India have only the bounce to counter, and not the movement.
g) Back to Tendulkar - I am sure he has taken Lara and Ponting's recent scoring achievements on board, and can feel them breathing down his shoulder in the century making leaderboard. If he can score 400 runs in the series, how cool will that be? The pressure from the media and BCCI will reduce dramatically, the mood of the nation will lift a lot, and the coffee will taste a lot better. Tendulkar may never tour SA again - that should spur him on to show them why he is the world's best batsman.
Are the above probable? Sure they are. If they do happen, India can come back with a decent result. If they do not, finis.
Ok, so where's my money? SA to win 1-0. Hope I am wrong, and we can win a Test atleast.
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